There is also the possibility that shorter AGI timelines given by people at the cutting edge of AI might be influenced by exposure bias. Those deeply embedded in the field are likely immersed in a constant stream of advancements and peer discussions that can create a perception of faster progress than is realistic. Great post, thank you!
Do people within a field tend to have better estimates? I suspect the answer is no, except for a subset of very simple problems.
There is also the possibility that shorter AGI timelines given by people at the cutting edge of AI might be influenced by exposure bias. Those deeply embedded in the field are likely immersed in a constant stream of advancements and peer discussions that can create a perception of faster progress than is realistic. Great post, thank you!