Very detailed analysis and I appreciate the mention of your bias as a forecaster of demise several years ago. The hyper links to reference material is helpful as well. My concern is the likelihood of confrontation including war. While I am sure the CCP would like to see the economy rebound to maintain economic power, I believe the investment in war materiel will lead to its use. Of course it will be used because of the containment attempts of the West or another such excuse, especially if the economy falters at a more rapid pace. Please continue writing on this topic and thank you.
I'm by no means an economist, but I've noticed one thing: the Chinese government has spent the last two years-ish increasing its hard-knuckled control over corporate entities industries and services it deems notably profitable; might they not just use the profits they can extract from those by various means to prop up or mitigate other sector failures? Also, controlling the legal system means controlling contract law; which gives them control of the collection and structure of all debt. The government could force restructuring of any debt in any sector they want under threat of outright cancelation of that debt; and creditors would have no other legal recourse. This, in tandem with restrictions on capital flight already in place, could prevent a large-scale collapse in a sector by channeling it into a bunch of medium-term, time- released smaller ones.
Those are traumatic too; but lack the contagion-effect that creates general collapses.
Very detailed analysis and I appreciate the mention of your bias as a forecaster of demise several years ago. The hyper links to reference material is helpful as well. My concern is the likelihood of confrontation including war. While I am sure the CCP would like to see the economy rebound to maintain economic power, I believe the investment in war materiel will lead to its use. Of course it will be used because of the containment attempts of the West or another such excuse, especially if the economy falters at a more rapid pace. Please continue writing on this topic and thank you.
I'm by no means an economist, but I've noticed one thing: the Chinese government has spent the last two years-ish increasing its hard-knuckled control over corporate entities industries and services it deems notably profitable; might they not just use the profits they can extract from those by various means to prop up or mitigate other sector failures? Also, controlling the legal system means controlling contract law; which gives them control of the collection and structure of all debt. The government could force restructuring of any debt in any sector they want under threat of outright cancelation of that debt; and creditors would have no other legal recourse. This, in tandem with restrictions on capital flight already in place, could prevent a large-scale collapse in a sector by channeling it into a bunch of medium-term, time- released smaller ones.
Those are traumatic too; but lack the contagion-effect that creates general collapses.
Great piece and a very good insight.
Thank you 🙏
Very interesting analysis, perhaps the mechagodzilla facing China is ending like Japan