Very detailed analysis and I appreciate the mention of your bias as a forecaster of demise several years ago. The hyper links to reference material is helpful as well. My concern is the likelihood of confrontation including war. While I am sure the CCP would like to see the economy rebound to maintain economic power, I believe the investment in war materiel will lead to its use. Of course it will be used because of the containment attempts of the West or another such excuse, especially if the economy falters at a more rapid pace. Please continue writing on this topic and thank you.
I'm by no means an economist, but I've noticed one thing: the Chinese government has spent the last two years-ish increasing its hard-knuckled control over corporate entities industries and services it deems notably profitable; might they not just use the profits they can extract from those by various means to prop up or mitigate other sector failures? Also, controlling the legal system means controlling contract law; which gives them control of the collection and structure of all debt. The government could force restructuring of any debt in any sector they want under threat of outright cancelation of that debt; and creditors would have no other legal recourse. This, in tandem with restrictions on capital flight already in place, could prevent a large-scale collapse in a sector by channeling it into a bunch of medium-term, time- released smaller ones.
Those are traumatic too; but lack the contagion-effect that creates general collapses.
But let's say they avoid a financial panic, restructure debts etc. What drives the economy forward? You can't go back to a real estate driven model of growth because you already have all the real estate you need, and people won't buy more of it for speculation after a crash.
Well, again, I'm no kinda economist; but speculation and other forms of implicit and explicit risk are a big thing in Chinese culture. If there's a big pool of investable savings sloshing around in their economy, it's gonna go somewhere; like commodities markets or stocks, or even some form of digital currency or assets. The government may even choose to issue special bonds to tap into that pool with a good return, but a longish term; + then use those funds for stabilization operations in at-risk sectors and markets.
Beyond that, 1.3 billion people are always gonna need stuff; so goods-and-services ain't such a bad bet, either.
Very detailed analysis and I appreciate the mention of your bias as a forecaster of demise several years ago. The hyper links to reference material is helpful as well. My concern is the likelihood of confrontation including war. While I am sure the CCP would like to see the economy rebound to maintain economic power, I believe the investment in war materiel will lead to its use. Of course it will be used because of the containment attempts of the West or another such excuse, especially if the economy falters at a more rapid pace. Please continue writing on this topic and thank you.
I'm by no means an economist, but I've noticed one thing: the Chinese government has spent the last two years-ish increasing its hard-knuckled control over corporate entities industries and services it deems notably profitable; might they not just use the profits they can extract from those by various means to prop up or mitigate other sector failures? Also, controlling the legal system means controlling contract law; which gives them control of the collection and structure of all debt. The government could force restructuring of any debt in any sector they want under threat of outright cancelation of that debt; and creditors would have no other legal recourse. This, in tandem with restrictions on capital flight already in place, could prevent a large-scale collapse in a sector by channeling it into a bunch of medium-term, time- released smaller ones.
Those are traumatic too; but lack the contagion-effect that creates general collapses.
I don't think so, I think the problem is too big.
But let's say they avoid a financial panic, restructure debts etc. What drives the economy forward? You can't go back to a real estate driven model of growth because you already have all the real estate you need, and people won't buy more of it for speculation after a crash.
Well, again, I'm no kinda economist; but speculation and other forms of implicit and explicit risk are a big thing in Chinese culture. If there's a big pool of investable savings sloshing around in their economy, it's gonna go somewhere; like commodities markets or stocks, or even some form of digital currency or assets. The government may even choose to issue special bonds to tap into that pool with a good return, but a longish term; + then use those funds for stabilization operations in at-risk sectors and markets.
Beyond that, 1.3 billion people are always gonna need stuff; so goods-and-services ain't such a bad bet, either.
Great piece and a very good insight.
Thank you 🙏
Very interesting analysis, perhaps the mechagodzilla facing China is ending like Japan